Barry Eichengreen Biography

At the University of California, Berkeley, Barry Eichengreen is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of economics and political science. This debate may be seen here in its full. I'd want to offer another reason not to overreact to this conversation. Premature talk of inflation was fuelled in 1936/7 by rising government bond rates and"wait for it"higher commodity prices. The World Economic Survey of the League of Nations, the 1930s counterpart of the IMF's World Economic Outlook, is the greatest source on the subject. As the economy recovered, it was only reasonable, as the authors of the 1936/37 Survey pointed out, for demand for long-term investment and hence long-term interest rates to rise. However, there was a caveat in the Survey: this tendency was even stronger in the short run than it may be in the long run, as investors battered by financial system shock preferred, at least temporarily, to preserve their investments in short-term, liquid form. Traders had also driven up the prices of tin, rubber, wool, and wheat as indications of green shoots began to amass. (It didn't help that during the Depression, there were efforts to limit the production of some of these items.) In the end, the markets got ahead of themselves, and these speculative bets crashed, and prices began to decrease even before US economic activity slowed. I take the conclusion from this incident that policymakers should think twice before deciding that increasing long-term rates and higher commodity prices mean it's time to end stimulative measures.

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